Batting for Wins

We're a little past the halfway point through the baseball season and as a seasoned Blue Jays fan it has been going as well as can be expected. A team that flirts with a .500 winning percentage while sitting comfortably in 4th place in the always competitive AL East division. The Jays have shown that they at least have consistency when it comes to their regular season standing. Their consistent positioning in the standings has been abetted this year with something else that has sparked the interest of Jays and MLB fans alike. And that is the fact the Toronto Blue Jays are leading the league in home runs with 140 (as of July 20/10) . If this is the first time you've have heard this news let me let it settle in :The Toronto Blue Jays lead the majors in home runs! For those who have been bombarded with the Canadian sports media fascination of the Canadian Long Bomb explosion this year, you might also know that this statistical lead has not really parlayed into any major movement in the division. 

 Jays Third Baseman Jose Bautista leads the Majors in HRs (25)

(Picture courtesy of Bluebirdbanter.com)

So while I don't scribe to being a sabermetrician. I think it's pretty simple math from the basic rules of baseball that a home run is the most desired hit when a batter steps up to the batter box. It's so easy, one swing of the bat, an easy trot around the bases and a run added on to your team's tally. Not having to worry about situational batting, runners in scoring position, fielders' positioning, who is batting behind you in the lineup, etc.

How then, can a team lead the league in HR but still remain relatively low in the standings with everything else remaining constant? I only say everything else remaining constant, or those with an Economics or Latin background "Ceteris paribus". It is due to the fact that the Toronto pitching and fielding as a team lies in about the league averages. For pitching, the Toronto staff led by no definitive "ace" with the absence of long time Jay, Roy Halladay pitching his way to the post season in Philadelphia this year. This ragtag group of young men have put up an ERA of 4.20, which is actually a shade under the AL average of 4.21. In terms of fielding, the statistics aren't as easily calculable but those pesky Sabermetricians have given us a stat known as "defensive efficiency" which can only be described as a "percentage of balls in play converted into outs". This time the Toronto Blue Jays sit exactly on the league average of .691. Understanding now that the pitching and fielding for the Jays this season has been mediocre at best, it'd be best to now to connect the dots related to HRs not equating into wins.

Before going onto to talk about what ails the Jays it would also be best to throw out two more assumptions regarding, the Jays divisional competition. Such as the majors' worst kept secret about the AL East housing the #1 and #2 in salary payrolls for players. The Red Sox and Yankees have both bought themselves championships the last few years with extravagant wages being handed out to some of the majors' most marquee players. Add in the fact, that the Tampa (Devil) Rays have been sitting on some of the top baseball prospects thanks to consecutive years of #1 overall picks have left the Rays in a position to be as almost dominant as the other 2 big titans in the division.

Now let's get to the nitty gritty. With 140 HRs and leading the next team by 18 HR, how has Toronto only been able to keep their head above the .500 plateau? It would seem there is more to the picture that no one is really noticing. I'd like to compare it to a magic eye illusion but to tell you the truth I've yet to figure those bad boys out either.

So if we're focusing on the batting, let's draw our attention to the most basic stat of hitting and that is BA (batting average). Taking a glimpse at the Blue Jays AL ranking in BA compared to HR is staggering. While being 1st in HR, the Blue Jays compete with the lowly Seattle Mariners for the bottom spot for AL BA. With the league average (.262), the Jays can only manage a meager (.243) with the Mariners snipping at their heels with (.238). So apparently it would seem as if the Jays aren't hitting for the fences, they'd rather take a seat on the pine. Compared to the AL East leading NY Yankees, who sit 3rd in the AL with HR (105) have been able to establish a BA of (.272).

"But Aaron, BA is a terrible stat to look at these days, especially if you want to consider yourself a sabermetrician." Well this is very true, BA has been seen as a reflection of an old school mentality at looking at the performance of baseball players during a season. So to complicate matters the statistic OBP (On Base Percentage) was developed to make up for the short comings of BA .Which was primarily a batter's ability to get on base regardless if it is a hit or not. Considering the display of talent in today's MLB  makes it a  more impressive stat. For instance, imagine the time to decide between swinging at a 96 mph fastball down the middle or a low 80s slider down and a away is mere milliseconds. So regardless if you can get on base, the chances for your team to score increase and open the playbook to a variety of ways to get that runner to home plate. While it may not seem easier than just belting it over the centre field fence, it may have it's upsides. Again the 3 teams ahead of the Jays in the AL East have OBP. at least 40 points higher than that of the Jays (.308).

If that wasn't enough to suggest that getting on base is just as important as swinging for the fences. Again the Red Sox (492), Yankees(488) and (Devil) Rays(463) have brought in more runs than the Jays (421).

To further the argument one last time and what can possibly me more of an indication that there is clearly a green light to swing away is the Blue Jays ranking in SO. While they only sit 2nd (691), and not 1st as you would think. The Rays who do hold the 1st spot (707), can at least claim to have a higher BA(.258) and OBP (.342) than the Jays.

While I'm not privy to who delivers hitting instruction to the Blue Jays or who in fact the team listens to more for hitting advice. It would seem as if whatever advice they are receiving is not translating into wins for the club. 

If anything it has proved to be a jumping rod for some players salary negotiations. Such as now former Jay Alex Gonzalez (How many Alex Gonzalezes do we have to go through?!?!) who was seen dealt  during the all-star break. His one year stint in Toronto after a few previous lackluster season in Cincinnati has been a huge improvement, particularly in the Home Run category where he had 17 through the all-star break. Considering his career-high in a season has been 23, it's not hard to deduct  that if he was to re-sign with the Jays he would've pushed that little stat in front of the Blue Jays' front office staff noses. 

Acquiring the younger and rumored hot head Yunel Escobar may pay dividends in the long run and with his early appearances in a Jay uniform providing some highlights already it might actually come together for the Jays.

In the end, however the Jays must find other ways to get runs on the board to be successful in the AL East. Otherwise watching Blue Jay highlights with a lot of HRs only to end in defeat makes it just like any other Blue Jay season....

SOTD - Daddy Fat Sax - Big Boi from his Andre 3000-less solo album "Sir Lucious Left Foot: Son of Chico Dusty"